Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Nedgroup's commercial about Sullenberger's landing on the Hudson is about expert heuristics, but is the analogy apt?

Nedgroup Investments (South Africa) is currently airing a striking commercial in which Captain Chesley Sullenberger narrates his landing Flight 1549 on the Hudson River after losing both engines to bird strikes. In the commercial. Sullenberger ascribes his feat to being "... just a pilot who used thirty years of experience to do my job." This is a good description of expert heuristics that developed over may years of experience in the form of associative memory. Herbert Simon, one of the founders of what is now known as behavioural economics, described this intuitive expertise here as "... nothing more and nothing less than recognition" (see also Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow, p. 237). Alessandro Cerboni regularly blogs on expert heuristics and is worth following. 

The Nedbank commercial is an good one and will probably (speaking as layman on advertising) be effective. The question, however, is whether the implied analogy between the expert heuristics in an individual based on 30 years experience and the accumulated corporate memory of an investment bank, is an apt one? Therefore, can an organization acquire heuristic decision making skills, or are such skills lodged in individual human beings? A Google search brought up a number of studies on simple group heuristics (i.e. here), but I personally doubt that that would apply to a complex organisation operating in a complex environment. The answer may be found in the concept of corporate memory, about which I blogged some time ago in "Therapy for corporate Alzheimers".


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