Saturday, March 27, 2010

Scientific consensus

Steven Novella from Neurologica posted on the value of scientific consensus and how it differs from the logical fallacy of an argument from authority. Some selected quotes:

"... we advocate rigorous and robust scientific methodology as the best way of understanding nature, we trust this process to some degree. We understand there can be fraud or sloppy studies, but generally if the research of others is all pointing toward one answer, we trust that research and its conclusions.

... science is complex, and few people can master more than a fairly narrow range of scientific expertise. And so outside our area of expertise (which is all of science for non-scientists) the best approach to take, in my opinion, is a hybrid approach – first, try to understand what is the consensus of scientific opinion.

... those interested in science will want to understand the evidence directly and how it relates to the consensus. But at the same time it must be recognized that a non-expert understanding of the evidence is a mere shadow of expert understanding.

... it is extreme hubris to substitute one’s frail non-expert assessment of a detailed scientific discipline for the consensus of opinion of scientific experts."
Novella continues to also point out that consensus of opinion is not always right – it is just usually right. He addresses important issues and I would recommend reading his whole post.

No comments:

Post a Comment